[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 170307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170307 
TXZ000-170400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...BIG COUNTRY INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...

VALID 170307Z - 170400Z

THROUGH 05Z...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS E-CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 494.  SHOULD CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED.

AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE
OF TSTMS FROM JONES INTO NOLAN COUNTIES OF W-CNTRL TX WITH A GENERAL
EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS.  ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS WERE
BEING OBSERVED OVER KNOX AND TERRELL AND PECOS COUNTIES IN TX. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR ABI IS
BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS
CNTRL TX /DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WHERE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CAP. 
ADDITIONALLY...JAYTON TX PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OWING TO AN
INCREASE AND VEERING OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW.

THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL TO
CONTINUE E OF ABI...PERHAPS TOWARD BWD WITH TIME.

ELSEWHERE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT EXISTS OVER THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS RETREATING DRY LINE.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...JAYTON PROFILER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION
INDEED FORM.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CAP
STRENGTH WITH GRADUAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31200143 32090102 33170015 33259926 32799859 31859873
30989930 30569985 30560094 

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