[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 16 23:28:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162326 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...

VALID 162326Z - 170030Z

ALTHOUGH MCS INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY
WANED...REDEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF 90-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET...MAY STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/PULSE SEVERE HAIL. A REPLACEMENT
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT WW INTO
NERN KS/SERN NEB. IN ADDITION...CELLS TRACKING NNE PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

SUBTLE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRACKED FROM THE SAND HILLS OF
NEB INTO SWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO WW
493 WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT HAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN NEB INTO NWRN IA WITH 20-30 KTS OF 0-1
KM SOUTHERLY INFLOW. THIS WILL BE STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. CELL MERGERS AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND/PULSE LARGE HAIL
THREAT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FLASH FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA WITH
TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40849910 41719914 42079792 42939672 44299602 44689489
42079496 41169754 

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