[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 16 23:02:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162300 
OKZ000-TXZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162300Z - 170030Z

THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
E OF WW 492 BETWEEN 00-01Z INTO WRN OK AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

AS OF 2245Z...AMA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHORT BOWING
LINE SEGMENT WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM ERN
ROBERTS/WRN HEMPHILL COUNTIES SWD INTO DONLEY COUNTY WITH A MOTION
OF 230/35-40 KTS.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT
INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 700 MB WITH
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.

REGIONAL PROFILERS AND RUC VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW A LARGE
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 30-40 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
WITHIN THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /AT LEAST THROUGH DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE/ OWING TO THE MODEST VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR. 
HOWEVER...COMPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...SUPPORTED BY
STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THUS...IT APPEARS
CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

..MEAD.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

36149941 36729922 36859876 36859827 36199783 35149779
34329785 34219831 34399930 

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