[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161758 
NEZ000-KSZ000-161900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161758Z - 161900Z

SEVERE THREAT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SE OF MCS ACROSS SAND
HILLS OF NEB IN AREA OF FORCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY 19Z.

MCS ACROSS CNTRL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AND REMAIN
ELEVATED/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO SD. TO
THE S OF THIS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN A MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FROM NEAR EAR TO THE W OF CNK. CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S/DEW POINTS IN LOWER/MID 60S. COMBINED WITH
A SW-NE ZONE OF BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM AREA
PROFILERS...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH
OVERALL THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH GREATER
ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38959964 39889948 40679976 41250003 41620005 42169901
42549834 42149732 41529711 40729708 39879768 39249825
38909888 

WWWW