[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161740 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...FAR NE NM...FAR SW KS...WRN OK
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161740Z - 161915Z

AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. A WW
MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS NE NM WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO INTO WRN KS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NM WITH A BAND OF
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO SE CO AND THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE
CO AND NE NM...THE ASCENT SHOULD CAUSE STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE CO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F WITH
AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 06/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

36320313 36310417 36820456 37470445 38070326 38400191
38040098 37330091 36750176 

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