[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 19:47:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 151945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151944 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-152115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE CO...NW KS...SRN AND WCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151944Z - 152115Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO...NW KS AND SWRN NEB. A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO
INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE CREATING FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED DUE
TO LARGE TEMP-SFC DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40 TO 50 DEGREES. THIS
SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY EXPAND NWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB AS THE CAPPING INVERSION
WEAKENS AND NEW STORMS INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37670253 38200342 40680269 41760192 42050091 41589955
40019982 37780112 

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