[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 06:09:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 150608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150607 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150607Z - 150830Z

ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND PERHAPS EXTREME
SWRN MN.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...UNLESS STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
INCREASES.

PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA INDICATES THAT A 60 KT H85 JET WAS
IMPINGING ON A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC-H85 FRONT OVER THE NEB/SD BORDER. 
OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM CNTRL-NCNTRL NEB AND MAINTENANCE
OF EVE CONVECTION MOVING EWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER ATTEST TO THE
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION.  STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE
EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA.  00Z LBF
SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OVER 9 DEG
C/KM AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL. 
OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE BRIEF WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT GIVEN
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AOB 35 KTS.  RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND A SHALLOW NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. 
THUS...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.  

IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LARGER SCALE
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING THAT MIGHT INCREASE RISKS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HAIL OR HIGH WINDS. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR INCREASES IN
INTENSITY/COVERAGE.

..RACY.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

44019933 44049693 43679542 42659428 41719500 41979814
43159991 

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