[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 14 14:45:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141443 
SDZ000-NDZ000-141615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN-NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141443Z - 141615Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ND INTO NRN-NERN SD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.  STRONGEST
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN NRN WY ESEWD
ACROSS SRN SD INTO SRN MN...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH/WARM FRONT
EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN ND.  12Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS STATES...
WITH ONGOING AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FORMING AND TRACKING
SEWD ALONG THE NRN-NERN PART OF THE CAP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN MT...WITH THIS IMPULSE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT AND TRACK MORE ELY INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD...WITH ACTIVITY
REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED.  HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN SSWLY LLJ INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD AIDING IN
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND SWRN
MN HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...AND MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEW ACTIVITY OVER
SRN ND/NRN SD.

..PETERS.. 06/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45880125 46330150 46660123 46610005 46429874 46079762
45509698 44889727 44689794 45259905 45560073 

WWWW