[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 14 06:59:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140658 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 140658Z - 140930Z

NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
SCNTRL ND AND CNTRL/NERN SD.  HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE STRONG GRT BASIN UPPER LOW.  THIS HAS LIKELY AUGMENTED THE
LLJ WITH 30 KT H85 SLY FLOW NOW BEING OBSERVED ON THE RAPID CITY
VWP.  THE LLJ WAS IMPINGING ON AN H85-H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASING TSTMS
EARLY THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NE OF A STRONG CAP SITUATED OVER THE
HIGHER PLAINS.

RUC GUIDANCE HAS THE LLJ GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE MORNING...
MAXIMIZING WARM ADVECTION FROM SCNTRL ND SEWD INTO ECNTRL SD.
THUS...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH 09-12Z.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GREATER THAN 50 KTS. 
THIS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL CELLS TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE GIVEN THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.  THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY GIVEN
UPDRAFT WILL PROBABLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE. 
BUT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD STORMS. 

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD WHILE STRONGER CELLS FAVOR THE
NWRN EDGE OF THE BANDS CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

..RACY.. 06/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45170143 47550355 47720253 47100048 45959691 44579661
43949739 44109982 

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