[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 13 20:05:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 132003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132003 
SDZ000-132200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132003Z - 132200Z

STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL SD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 21Z ACROSS THE
REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST
TO EAST FROM NEAR SPEARFISH TO PIERRE SD. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE BLACK
HILLS AND FURTHER EAST BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON SD. AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43189908 42990210 43470377 44630355 44940130 44589880 

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