[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 13 18:54:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131852 
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN ID / FAR WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131852Z - 131945Z

WW MAY BE ISSUED BY 20Z FOR PARTS OF WRN/NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF CLOUD BAND/BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AT MSO...AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AT PRESENT OVER WRN MT AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NRN ID/MT BORDER.  ADDITIONAL HEATING
EXPECTED TO AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED CU ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/
WRN MT WHERE STRONGEST INSOLATION IS OCCURRING.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX APPROACHES REGION FROM THE SOUTH...MAINTAINING
THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..PETERS.. 06/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

48681678 48991663 49011411 47761331 46671298 44751365
44641453 43531492 43091585 43861727 48741698 

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