[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 12 22:34:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122233 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-130000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...

VALID 122233Z - 130000Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 01Z EXPIRATION.  NEW WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND
WILMINGTON...WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY THROUGH
00-01Z SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/THERMAL LOW
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP.
THEREAFTER...STABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AND ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING
TRENDS.  DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EAST OF BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH...IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS BY 03Z...WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH MORE
RAPIDLY.

..KERR.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

34038257 34288198 34458099 35128033 35527994 35597927
35567795 35717671 35697568 35237548 34897624 34567720
33997760 33727822 33527922 33838022 33698094 33508155
33348227 33408312 

WWWW