[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 12 22:30:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122228 
MTZ000-IDZ000-130030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122228Z - 130030Z

ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS IN ID AND SWRN MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AIRMASS OVER
NWRN MT AND NRN ID SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED BY 00Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER THE NRN CENTRAL
MTS OF ID AND FAR SWRN MT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ERN ORE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CINH BASED ON
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH APPROACHING UPPER FORCING AND
CONTINUED HEATING/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF UPPER JET AND IT/S EFFECTS ON HEATING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX...

47091308 48451404 49051439 48471682 46461562 45401484
44771435 45381186 

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