[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jun 11 20:00:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 111958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111958 
OKZ000-TXZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR
SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111958Z - 112230Z

ISOLATED SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WCENTRAL OK IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED AND
MARGINAL...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF WRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NM
WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AND MODEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
SFC CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARDS A SFC
LOW CENTER OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN OK. LARGE BOUNDARY
LAYER T/TD SPREADS SUPPORTING INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS...HIGH DCAPE
VALUES /1500-2000 J/KG/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES 500-1000
J/KG...SUGGEST THAT DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS. OVERALL WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMITED DURATION FOR ANY SINGLE CELL
LIFESPAN.

..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

35370050 34340116 33610299 33120298 32400253 32080226
32370123 34289974 35179950 

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