[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 111851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111851 
OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-112115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...ERN CO AND FAR NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111851Z - 112115Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM FAR NERN
NM NWD INTO SERN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS OF NERN
CO/SERN WY BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN
WY SWD INTO NERN NM. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CINH
REMAINING OVER THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE...AND AS A RESULT
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD FROM THE ERN SLOPES
INTO THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH 40+ T/TD SPREADS....MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND
500 J/KG AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG / INDICATES THAT THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS OVER
MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE EVIDENT PER SFC AND REGIONAL PROFILER DATA OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF FAR NRN CO/SERN WY. CONSEQUENT GREATER VERTICAL
SHEAR IN THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
GREATER UPDRAFT ROTATION POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL.

FURTHER EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING WILL
BE NECESSARY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ERN CO AND SERN WY AS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH
REMAINS AT 18Z. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR OTHER SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE FRONT
RANGE WILL BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
JUST SOUTH OF AKO WNWWD TO A MESOLOW OVER SRN WELD COUNTY IN NERN CO
AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH ORIENTED E-W NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OVER
SERN WY/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE.

..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

41350265 42480306 42300529 40620572 39950562 38240545
37080521 36440488 36610299 38490276 39560274 

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