[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 10 20:30:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 102029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102028 
ILZ000-MOZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MO...SWRN/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102028Z - 102230Z

SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR COU ESEWD TO THE STL METRO AREA/SRN IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD BISECTING THE STL
METRO...THEN SEWD TO NEAR MT VERNON. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAKENING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH /AS EVIDENT BY RECENT
INCREASE IN LTG /ELEVATED ECHO TRENDS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO/ SHOULD
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN
ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY IS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
NCENTRAL/NWRN MO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS INTO ECENTRAL MO AND INTERACT
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM
1500-2500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

39309096 39519217 38649257 37708823 38648780 

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