[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jun 23 15:52:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231552 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NW GA...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231552Z - 231715Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS A LINE OF STORMS
MOVES EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL AND NW GA 0VER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM NRN AR EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY
WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION ALLOWING THE LINE TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXISTING FROM NRN AL
EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0
C/KM ALONG THIS AXIS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

34078512 33908779 34928823 36008731 35918484 

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