[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 27 01:38:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270135 
INZ000-ILZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646...

VALID 270135Z - 270300Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO
AN MCS THIS EVENING FROM MACON COUNTY NEWD INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY IL. 
00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED A DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOIST PROFILE WHICH WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500
J/KG/. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2. 
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY TORNADO THREAT TO DIMINISH AS MCS CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE...SUPPORTING COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION.

FARTHER TO THE NE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS EXIST N OF LAF...AHEAD OF
IL MCS.  SRN-MOST STORM WHICH HAS DEVIATED LEFT OF THE MEAN
WIND...HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER VERMILLION COUNTY
IL.  MODIFICATION OF WOLCOTT IND PROFILER FOR THIS STORM MOTION
INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTING THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL TORNADOES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

40819060 41398998 41188815 41278720 41108666 40588653
39838690 39098722 38908751 39379004 39569084 

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