[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 262234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262233 
INZ000-ILZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262233Z - 270000Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM NEAR DEC
WWD TO 30 WNW SPI AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IL. 
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN
COLD FRONT...NEARER TO WEAK WNW-ESE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE OR WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM UIN TO NEAR MTO.  INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS ERN MO
AND SWRN IL IS HOT AND QUITE MOIST WHICH IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG.  WHILE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT WEAK...AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL N OF THIS
WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE/WARM FRONT WITH SRH VALUES OF AROUND 250 M2/S2
THROUGH THIS LAYER.

THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR/ WITH A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
A BRIEF TORNADO...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN MORE OUTFLOW
DOMINANT.

..MEAD.. 07/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39739075 40339079 40979035 41098899 40818807 40058748
39418767 39168829 39188919 

WWWW