[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jul 23 19:07:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231904 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SC...S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN
NC...SC...NRN/WRN GA...CENTRAL AL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 231904Z - 232200Z

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z NEAR
AXIS FROM MGM-CAE TO WRN SHORES PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING ATL AREA. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MULTICELL AND PULSE IN NATURE...WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED IN FORM OF DOWNBURSTS. 
SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NC PORTION OF
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. 
WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND
DECELERATE...FROM CENTRAL VA SWWD ACROSS WRN SC TO VICINITY BHM. 
RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F.  DEW POINTS
MIXED INTO LOW-MID 60S IN A FEW LOCALES FROM ERN GA TO ERN NC DURING
EARLY AFTERNOON...COMBINING WITH WEAK AMBIENT LIFT TO SLOW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...MOIST ADVECTION AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION APPEARS TO BE OFFSETTING THAT EFFECT AND AGAIN
ENRICHING NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...AS HEATING INTENSIFIES IN FORMERLY
CLOUDY AREAS.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATED BAND OF MULTILEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS -- LEFT BEHIND BY ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT --
ERODING AWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CONCENTRATED MOST DENSELY NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES NEAR FORMER CLOUD EDGES...HOWEVER
BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING CINH INDICATES TSTMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM THOSE BOUNDARIES AS WELL.  MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED.  LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK OVER MOST OF REGION...KEEPING STORM ORGANIZATION DEPENDENT ON
SMALL SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. 
HOWEVER...MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF AREA...ACROSS OH/PA...MAY
ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALOFT OVER PORTIONS NC.

..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

31988851 32788793 33428675 34638208 35977875 35787622
34427779 33687917 31968477 31388653 

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