[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 222324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222324 
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...WRN CT...DE...ERN MD...ERN PA AND SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...

VALID 222324Z - 230030Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 0636 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. THREAT
OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02Z.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE.
CURRENT PLANS ARE TO ALLOW THE WATCH TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF
DESIRED BY THE LOCAL WFOS.

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN
NY SWWD THROUGH ERN PA INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
NE OF THE SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT  AND DISPLACED
FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES FARTHER S HAVE
VEERED TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING ALONG
WITH TENDENCY FOR STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING TO LIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...

41347279 39887374 38147488 38107593 38967615 40927530
41947385 41957294 

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