[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 22 18:14:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221812 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-221915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN VA...NRN NC...DC...MD W OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221812Z - 221915Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AND WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR
VA/MD PORTION OF THIS AREA.  

GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND E OF EWD-DRIFTING LEE
TROUGH -- ANALYZED FROM DC AREA JUST W OF I-95 INTO NC.  AIR MASS
ACROSS THIS REGION IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING.  RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
-- EVIDENT IN 12Z IAD RAOB -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF AREA
CONCURRENT WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION AT SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES RISING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER NE IN WW 636...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND
A FEW SUPERCELLS/BOWS STILL ARE POSSIBLE.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO A RISK.

..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

38017528 37097586 36687631 36427750 36487877 36967849
38877710 39527610 38077645 

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