[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221753 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-222030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN WI...NRN IA...SRN MN...EXTREME NRN
IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221753Z - 222030Z

SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OVER REGION AS CINH
WEAKENS...ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH
THREAT OF SVR HAIL FROM MOST VIGOROUS CELLS.  A FEW STRONG GUSTS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY W OF MS RIVER...WHERE DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT INVOF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND SRN MN...WITH ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN DAKOTAS SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB. 
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE OVER SRN MN AND NERN IA...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY ALREADY
HAS INITIATED AND LIKELY IS BECOMING SFC-BASED OVER CENTRAL WI AS
TEMPS RISE INTO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
AREA BY 21Z...AMIDST FAVORABLE SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F.  RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
PRESENCE OF WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

44679505 44349241 44568963 44078804 42648844 42118968
41909126 43069520 

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