[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221409 
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-221545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...SERN
NY...CT...MA...DE...RI...NJ...NERN MD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221409Z - 221545Z

THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL.  AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL PA...
WARM FRONT ARCHES NEWD OVER SERN NY BETWEEN BGM-MSV...THEN ESEWD
ACROSS CT/MA BORDER REGION. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO DRIFT NWD AS SFC
LOW MOVES ENEWD...TOWARD SERN NY.  MEANWHILE SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH APCH OF GREAT LAKES MID-UPPER
TROUGH...RESULTING IN ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKED FLOW
NE-SE OF CYCLONE CENTER.  100 M HEIGHT FALL WAS NOTED IN 12Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS AT PIT...WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED E
OF LOW.  IN FCST SOUNDINGS...THIS YIELDS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200 J/KG -- AND AT LEAST MRGL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHO
STRUCTURES.  ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RATE OF SFC DIABATIC
HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT...AND MODIFIED IAD/OKX RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE PARCELS ALREADY ARE ROOTED AT SFC OVER MUCH OF DISCUSSION
AREA.  ONLY WEAK HEATING OF 2-4 DEG F IS NEEDED TO REMOVE REMAINING
SBCINH.

..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

40577672 41427647 42337570 42627399 42457216 41947145
41247173 40877243 40557396 39867404 39317441 38957483
38947582 40077659 

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