[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 22 07:17:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220715 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-220815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AREA INTO CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635...

VALID 220715Z - 220815Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 08Z.

FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES DOWN THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  ADDITIONAL NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 
DESPITE CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
WITH COOLING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.  DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW REMAINS WEAK AHEAD OF MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH STILL
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...MINIMIZING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

36398013 37417956 38047836 37357732 36037733 34697891
33868002 33508147 34088244 

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