[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191824 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/MUCH OF LA/SOUTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191824Z - 192030Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHERN MS/MUCH OF LA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS WITH POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PRIMARILY ACROSS
LA/SOUTHERN MS.

WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 90S F/DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF MS/AL/LA PER DEEPENING CU FIELD...WITH INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-20/JACKSON ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. WITH A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM YESTERDAY...12Z OBSERVED RAOBS
MODIFIED FOR CURRENT AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUPPORTS MLCAPES OF
3000-3500 J/KG IN A STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ROUNDING THE RIDGE...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/SMALL
CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31529276 32849279 32979040 32398812 31888706 30918764
30529001 30589152 

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