[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 18:08:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191807 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN WV/WESTERN AND CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHERN
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 191807Z - 192030Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT AREAS OF WV/VA/NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE AS WELL.
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NORTHERN NC. GIVEN 
STRONG INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S/LOWER
90S F AND 70S F DEWPOINTS...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM WASHINGTON DC/BLACKSBURG
VA/GREENSBORO NC...WITH MLCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. MORNING RAOBS/CURRENT WSR-88D VWPS ARE
INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK FLOW REGIME THAT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PULSE-TYPE MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND
SLOW/POTENTIALLY TRAINING STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SINCE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LIMITED...NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...

38967927 38837789 38287736 37097776 35767886 36078021
36998087 37598071 

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