[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191216 
MNZ000-191345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191216Z - 191345Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SW MN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A WW.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MCS OVER WRN MN ALONG THE AXIS OF
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE NOSE OF
A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVES ESEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR EXISTS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM
ALOFT...THE SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

45639472 45209364 44109376 43709499 44119619 44799632
45409585 

WWWW