[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 06:26:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190624 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD...SRN ND...FAR WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190624Z - 190800Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS NRN SD AND SRN ND. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN ND. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS
PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL SD TO SERN
ND. RUC FORECASTS MOVE THE AXIS EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THE
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE
CONSIDERING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45099631 44589961 44510123 44790201 45920195 46320032
46589771 46469623 

WWWW