[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 14:58:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 181457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181456 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181456Z - 181630Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED AND ONE OR MORE WW/S MAY BE REQUIRED.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST
THAT ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF UNV TO SE
BGM TO SE BML. IN FACT...A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
TROUGH OVER BRADFORD COUNTY IN N-CNTRL PA.  

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO
1500-2500 J/KG.  MODESTLY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SMALL-SCALE BOWS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

40807907 41177856 42087646 43297318 44667043 44086972
42397086 40167831 40247893 

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