[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 11:40:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 181139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181139 
INZ000-ILZ000-181315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181139Z - 181315Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SWD ACROSS SCNTRL IL. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN MO TO NRN IND. RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE BAND NEAR A MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN
CNTRL IL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION. THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38618777 38108881 38378972 39188987 39868948 40088903
40028806 39338753 

WWWW