[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 17 20:54:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 172050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172049 
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AND WRN AZ...FAR SWRN UT AND SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172049Z - 172245Z

ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM NWWD
INTO THE SCENTRAL MTNS OF UT. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS /TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NV/
AFTER 22Z WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT. FURTHER
SE...AN MCV OVER SERN AZ MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS OF SERN AZ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE
A MARGINAL SVR WIND/BLOWING DUST RISK IN THE PHX METRO AREA/SCENTRAL
AZ ALSO AFTER 22Z. 

24 HR TREND ANALYSES SHOWS MANY SFC OBS HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM A
3-10 DEG F DWPT INCREASE. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY SLIGHT
COOLING /3-4 DEG F/. THEREFORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND
100 J/KG OF MLCINH EXISTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. SO IT SHOULD TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING TO AID IN ANY SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN AZ/SWRN UT AND SERN
AZ TO DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WERE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY /AROUND 20 KTS/. HOWEVER THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION AND A DMGG
WIND THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

31941192 32671311 34711438 35301514 35941504 36891482
37521408 37681349 37631320 37121301 35341170 34961122
34381069 33861051 33021037 32321026 31561096 