[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 17 19:12:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 171910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171909 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN LA...SERN OK AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171909Z - 172145Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GENERALLY MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SWWD FROM WRN LA INTO PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE RELATIVE LIMITED SVR THREAT AND ORGANIZATION...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BNDRY EXTENDING SE-NW FROM NEAR LAF TO
NEAR TXK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ON THIS BNDRY.
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER
VORT CENTER OVER SRN MS SHOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BNDRY AND IN THE VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS THAT
EXTENDS NWWD INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR. 20-25 KT MID LEVEL NNELY MID
LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ON RECENT LCH AND SHV VWP DATA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY OVER SRN MS/LA...EXPECT SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE SWWD THROUGH WRN LA AND ECENTRAL/SERN TX WITH SOME LINEAR
ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE
/MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OR CELL MERGERS WITHIN LINES.
FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER SERN OK/SWRN
AR. TERRAIN AIDED FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS...WITH DMGG
WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES AOA 3000
J/KG/...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES  AND DCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.

..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

30049141 30989275 33029375 34909389 35219414 35049648
34509692 32259627 31429581 29219491 29279410 29459210 

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