[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 162307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162307 
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-170100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE MN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162307Z - 170100Z

THE NEED FOR A WW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF HIBBING MN
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME
FOCUSED...TO THE NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WEAK COOLING ALOFT HAS OCCURRED
IN WEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CONTRIBUTING TO
WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. 
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO HAVE OCCURRED AS INITIAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION BECAME ROOTED IN VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG.  SO...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW
LONG SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL PERSIST...AS ONGOING
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ABOVE COOLER MARINE LAYER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
AND RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.
 
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
UPSTREAM...INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS.  AN EAST-WEST BAND
OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN MODERATE TO STRONG AND SHEARED
MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

..KERR.. 07/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF...

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