[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jul 14 06:34:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140634 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW WI...SE MN AND NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140634Z - 140800Z

STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN IL
INTO SW WI AND SE MN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS SHOULD
HELP SUSTAIN THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SE MN FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER WRN MN. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT/ AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHORT-LIVED. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE MCS MOVES EWD INTO WCNTRL
WI.

..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

44909022 44588962 44068936 43538929 43048958 42798983
42629070 42659154 42919231 43489269 44439246 44959154 

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