[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 13 18:52:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131851 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131851Z - 132045Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
FROM THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. MONITORING FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD A FAIRLY MOIST/PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON...OVERCOMING REMAINING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE. INTERSPERSED
BETWEEN HIGHER CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST HOUR PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...WITH ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN.

SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z ABERDEEN RAOB
MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...SUGGESTING MULTICELL CLUSTERS/FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

47879766 48919707 48719482 45919459 44749504 44849660
44959734 46599766 

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