[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 13 17:58:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131757 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-132000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131757Z - 132000Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

LIKELY BEING AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MDT-TOWERING CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG A
GENERAL NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MO.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED BOTH NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MO...AND ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AS OF 1745Z. INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH AN OVERALL UPSWING IN INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...RUC
BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE MODIFIED 12Z DAVENPORT RAOB SUGGEST
THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
MLCAPES ARE ALREADY ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH 3000
J/KG OR GREATER POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER SHORT TERM RUC
GUIDANCE. WINCHESTER IL PROFILER AND DAVENPORT/ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWPS
ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST WIND PROFILES...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER PULSE/ISOLATED IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 07/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

41099332 41719232 40848997 38868900 37708986 38209113 

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