[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121927 
KSZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121927Z - 122100Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER ELLIS...HODGEMAN AND EDWARDS COUNTIES
IN WRN KS.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN EDGE
OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR
SWRN KS.  AREA PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
WEAK...HOWEVER THE STEEP LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

37749968 38910077 39580088 39880003 39569908 38769831
37989842 37579884 

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