[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121833 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121833Z - 121930Z

POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1825Z...UPTON NY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM EXHIBITING
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND /20 WSW GON/ WITH A
MOTION OF 265/20 KTS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE
LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AMBIENT AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND
NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 70S. 
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO
POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG.

ASSOCIATED UPTON NY VWP INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND
0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SWLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES TO 30-40 KTS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR
SMALL-DIAMETER SUPERCELL STORMS TO PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS
THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

..MEAD.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

41007356 41507351 41777315 41827194 41827112 41197130
40997275 

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