[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 1 07:50:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010750 
MNZ000-WIZ000-010915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MN...NWRN WI...EXTREME WRN LS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566...

VALID 010750Z - 010915Z

REMAINS OF FORMERLY SVR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD 40-50 KT ACROSS
AND OUT OF ERN PORTION WW AREA OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ELEVATED TSTMS
-- FORMING IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MCS OUTFLOW -- MAY PULSE
BRIEFLY TO NEAR SVR LEVELS WITH HAIL.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY KEEPING MOST OF WW THROUGH
SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.

60 KT GUST MEASURED AT BRD AT 631Z WITH LEADING MCS NOW APCHG DLH
AREA.  HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...A
TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS
BUOYANT PROFILE.  SCATTERED TSTMS FARTHER N ACROSS ST LOUIS COUNTY
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER WRN/NRN
ARROWHEAD REGION...INCLUDING BOUNDARY WATERS AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE NEAR SFC AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...PRIND
ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED...EITHER OVER ARROWHEAD...LS OR NRN
WI.

..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

48519261 48599282 48439327 48359369 46249524 46189633
45919643 45529618 45429460 45689255 46719085 48048951
48038977 47978997 48099003 48099072 48259088 48079139
48079159 48209173 48269202 48379209 48279236 48459250 

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