[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 1 05:44:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010544 
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN EXCEPT EXTREME SRN
PORTION...PARTS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SWRN ALS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565...

VALID 010544Z - 010715Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS -- IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD NWRN WI THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 10Z.  SLIGHT SWD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT MOST
SUSTAINED MOTION SHOULD BE EWD...GIVEN PROGGED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS MOTION VECTORS. ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE GRADUALLY...WITH EWD
EXTENT...LEADING TO SLOW DECREASE IN SVR THREAT EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL/ERN WI.  HOWEVER...STRONG COLD POOL EVIDENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL STORM SCALE ASCENT...WHILE INFLOW
LAYER WILL MOISTEN SLIGHTLY BASED ON RUC/WRF FCST MOIST ADVECTION
AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES AT 850-925 MB LEVELS UPSTREAM.  THEREFORE MCS
MIGHT SHIFT FARTHER E ACROSS WI THAN CURRENT ANALYSES OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY FIELDS INDICATE.  MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG -- NOW EVIDENT
OVER CENTRAL MN -- WILL LESSEN TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL/ERN WI...BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME OVER LATTER AREA UNTIL
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY PASSES.

MEANWHILE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NERN ND/NWRN MN...AND WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING ATOP
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  LATTER TSTMS WILL PERSIST
IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA...FROM ERN PORTIONS SD/ND BORDER
INTO WRN MN.  PORTIONS EXISTING WWS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED 7Z EXPIRATION.  ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE
BEHIND PRIMARY MCS IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT
TIME...HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF SVR THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46059964 46259834 47149760 48149821 48489856 48939722
48619438 47609231 46359027 45058989 44069109 44989779
45899970 

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