[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101442 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101442Z - 101615Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. 
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S THIS MORNING ACROSS OH INTO WRN PARTS OF
PA/NY...SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING
SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC
HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG.

TSTMS ONGOING ALONG THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NRN OH INTO WRN PA/NY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT VWPS
INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KTS IN THE LOWEST
6 KM/ WILL EXIST OVER ERN OH INTO WRN PA.  HERE...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

40368292 40878279 41698133 42108015 43117889 43397833
43397764 43157722 42177731 40987881 40457995 40038121
39878251 

WWWW