[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022229 
NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-030030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ/SRN CA/ERN NM/SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022229Z - 030030Z

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...

SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTN ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND CHIRICAHUA MTNS OF SE AZ. OBSERVED WIND
GUSTS HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
30-35 KTS. WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT FROM
REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR DATA JUST SW OF FLG TO AROUND 35 SSW OF SOW.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE REINFORCED BY NEW TSTMS...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS AFTN. ADDITIONALLY STORMS ARE
FORMING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AND ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS IN SRN
CA...WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH LATEST DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1400-2000
J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

31240914 31631221 33401677 35141640 36491522 36951119
35830923 35060850 32710855 

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