[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 30 23:29:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 302329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302328 
SCZ000-GAZ000-310100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302328Z - 310100Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THREAT MAY BE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED...PROBABLY CONFINED TO NARROW SWATH FROM THE VICINITY OF
ALBANY GA THROUGH THE SAVANNAH GA AND CHARLESTON SC AREAS...BUT A
NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED BY EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW.

MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO BE SPREADING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WHERE INTENSIFICATION
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 03Z...INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AS
MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...
NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING LIFT
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR.  CAPE UP TO
500 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ISOLATED PERSISTENT SUPERCELL...OR PERHAPS A SHORT SQUALL LINE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 01/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31708477 32098392 32468254 32798135 33028036 32827963
31927965 31178101 30878233 30868387 30898459 31178501 

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