[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 140719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140719 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-140845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...DE...SRN NJ...NRN NECK OF VA AND ERN/SRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140719Z - 140845Z

WELL-DEVELOP SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED OVER THE NRN NECK OF
VA...ALONG NRN PORTION OF A LINE OF TSTMS THAT EXTENDS SWD INTO ERN
NC.  THIS BOW ECHO WAS MOVING 210/45 AND IS EXTRAPOLATED INTO NERN
MD AROUND 10Z.

VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS A H5 JET OF
95+ KTS ROTATES NWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS.  STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL PA HAS MAINTAINED
A SELY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND 0-1KM SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS WAS BEING OBSERVED ON THE DOVER DE VWP.
THUS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
SMALL SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT. 

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS
IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN VA NEWD THROUGH ERN MD INTO DE...EXTREME SERN
PA AND NJ WHERE 56-61 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE BEING
OBSERVED.  THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INFLUENCE OF A COOLER
NEAR-SURFACE MARINE LAYER VCNTY CHESAPEAKE BAY/ATLANTIC...ANY
STRONGER TSTM MAY BE CAPABLE AT BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR.

A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

..RACY.. 01/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

37907696 39097653 40057583 40217531 39917454 39437471
38747521 38017553 

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