[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 13 21:07:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 132108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132108 
SCZ000-GAZ000-132245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132108Z - 132245Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.  STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES HAS MAINTAINED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WHICH EXTENDED FROM
NERN GA INTO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL AS OF 2055Z.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS SO FAR TODAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WIND FIELDS HAVE CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENED WITH
LOCAL VWPS INDICATING STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS AS
TO HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRENGTHENING
WAA BECOMING BETTER COUPLED WITH INCREASED MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM.  THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...THIS FORCING AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SUSTAINED.

..MEAD.. 01/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

31338132 31918207 33078199 33888208 34778231 34958183
34688065 34338003 33257975 32687971 

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