[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 110549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110548 
MIZ000-110945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 110548Z - 110945Z

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 08-12Z. HRLY AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.02-0.04 IN.

MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER WCENTRAL IL AT 06Z...MOVES ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL
IND BY 12Z...THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
NRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. ELY
WINDS ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS IN THE LOW LEVEL SHOULD SUPPORT
LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES.

..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

44888408 44708581 44308629 43608646 43458635 43458477
43758395 44368334 44718333 

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