[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 102102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102101 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102101Z - 102230Z

ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AND
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA...IS EXPECTED ACROSS A PART OF NRN
MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY THROUGH 23-00Z.  LIMITED THREAT AREA AND
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOW ECHO...APEX NOW MOVING INTO SWRN KY
/TRIGG COUNTY/...MAINTAINING A SPEED OF 40 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL.  THIS BOW CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG
THE WARM FRONT.  THIS BOUNDARY PER SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS WAS
RETREATING NWD AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 11/00Z
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...NOW OVER SERN MO DEEPENS AND MOVES
NEWD.  DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW ECHO...COLD
POOL COMBINED WITH 50 KT SWLY LLJ...NOW OBSERVED AT PAH VAD...SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ONGOING BOW. 
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN
A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES.

..PETERS.. 01/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36358790 36818775 37038780 37208805 37588768 37868729
38178587 36978595 36578652 

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