[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 020155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020155 
MOZ000-ARZ000-020400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020155Z - 020400Z

PORTIONS OF NRN AR AND SRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY AFTER 04Z. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH NRN MS INTO
NRN AR...SWRN MO TO A SURFACE LOW IN SERN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM
NERN TX THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM
FRONT. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH OK. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
INTO CNTRL AND NRN AR AND SRN MO LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE EVENING
FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO EXTREME NRN AR WHERE CAP IS SOMEWHAT
WEAKER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER. CAP INCREASES FARTHER SWD
INTO AR...AND THIS MAY LIMIT SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY
BECOME CLOSE TO SURFACE BASED IF THEY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO...BUT SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ELEVATED FARTHER NWD INTO MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS MORE STABLE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36189345 37939340 38259168 37078970 35968987 34889100 

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