[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121818 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY/CT/RI/MA/SERN NH/ERN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 121818Z - 130015Z

VERY HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS POWERFUL NOREASTER TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE.

AT 18Z...985MB SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE PASSING BETWEEN ACK AND BUOY
44008 WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SOUTH OF BID. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS
AND INTENSE JET DYNAMICS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
WITH PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3MB PER HOUR IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

BAND OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL /2-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ HAS DRIFTED EAST
FROM NRN NJ/NYC/SWRN CT REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND WAS NOW
SITUATED FROM LONG ISLAND NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MA AND SERN NH.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WERE FORMING WITHIN ZONE OF
PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX NW OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER...FROM ERN MA TO THE COAST OF MAINE. VERY STRONG MESOSCALE
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NW OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...WHILE FORCING
TO SUSTAIN BANDED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY WANES IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW. DEEP LAYER ASCENT FROM ERN MA/SRN NH TO SRN MAINE WILL OCCUR
WITHIN AN IDEAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY SNOW
PRODUCTION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD
LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 50KT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.

..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 02/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

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